Braves hope to break out the brooms against Phils
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are gradually working their way up the NL East standings and will try to extend their winning streak to a season-high four straight games tonight in the finale of a three-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field.
Atlanta and Florida are the hottest teams in the division right now, as the Braves sit three games off Philadelphia's pace in the East and the Marlins are currently just a half-game behind the Phillies. The Braves posted their third win in a row with Wednesday's 11-1 bashing of 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels and the Phillies with a 14-hit attack.
Matt Diaz clubbed a two-run homer and finished with three hits, while Diory Hernandez belted a solo shot for the Braves, who got two hits and three RBI out of veteran Chipper Jones. Brian McCann and Martin Prado both had two hits in Atlanta's third win since a four-game losing streak.
Braves starter Jair Jurrjens had his no-hit bid broken up in the seventh inning by Paul Bako and allowed one run on just the one hit to go along with six strikeouts and four walks in seven frames for the win.
"I wasn't thinking (of the no-hitter). I was just trying to throw strikes early in the count, make them get themselves out," said Jurrjens.
Kris Medlen and Manny Acosta completed the two-hitter with a combined two innings of scoreless relief.
The Braves are 1-6 in Javier Vazquez's last seven starts and will roll the rice with him again this evening versus the Phillies. Vazquez is 1-4 over his last seven trips to the mound and lost his most recent outing on June 27 versus Boston. He held the Red Sox to a run and six hits over 7 2/3 decent innings, but fell to 2-5 in nine home starts this season.
Vazquez, who is 5-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 16 total starts, will face the Phillies for the third time this season. He is 1-0 in two appearances so far and 11-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 25 career games. The righty beat the Phils on May 9 at Citizens Bank Park with 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball.
Philadelphia is rapidly falling from grace and has dropped 13 of its last 17 games to watch its division lead shrink to just a half-game ahead of the suddenly-surging Marlins. The despised New York Mets are only two games in back of the Phillies, who would like to put last night's loss behind them.
Bako and Shane Victorino recorded the only hits for Philly, and Jimmy Rollins finished 0-for-3 at the plate to run his hitless streak to a career-worst 27 official at-bats. Rollins' previous career high had been a 25 at-bat hitless streak from June 18-24, 2002.
Hamels was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in only four innings of work to fall to 4-5 on the season.
"It's a challenging year," Hamels said on the team's site. "Not every time you got there, every season is going to be great. You have the years where you really have to learn who you are. You have to take what you did last year, kind of the ups, downs and really battle through it. I think that's where you learn who you are and what you're going to be capable of in the future. Things aren't going to be easy. You're put on a big pedestal when you win and win awards. You expect a lot out of yourself. And I expect a lot out of myself."
Philadelphia, which opens a three-game home series versus the Mets on Friday, will expect a lot from tonight's starter J.A. Happ. Happ will bring his unbeaten record to the mound for the Phillies and is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 19 games (7 starts) this season. Happ is coming off the first shutout of his career, as he twirled nine innings of five-hit ball in a 10-0 victory at Toronto on June 27.
Happ struck out four and did not walk a batter at Rogers Centre, improving to 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in nine road games (4 starts) this season. The young lefty will face Atlanta for the second time in 2009, as he tossed two innings of relief in a 12-11 win back on April 8. Happ allowed a two-run homer in that game.
Philadelphia went 14-4 against Atlanta a year ago, but the Braves have won six of eight meetings with the Phils so far in 2009. The Phils have dropped the first two tests at Turner Field after going 9-0 there a year ago.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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